PA Market Report: Overview (Apr 26 – Apr 30) & Upcoming Events May’21

Apr 26:

OPEC+ technical committee keeps oil demand growth forecast unchanged

OPEC+ technical committee meeting ends, keeps oil demand growth forecast unchanged – two sources

Apr 27:

Le Maire: EU has lost too much time since recovery fund deal (Euro Zone)

FRANCE’S FINANCE MIN. LE MAIRE: THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION CAN EXAMINE NATIONAL RECOVERY STRATEGIES AS QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE SO THAT THEY CAN BE ACCEPTED BY THE EUROPEAN COUNCIL BY THE END OF JULY.

Apr 28:

Consumer Price Index, (Australia)

Key statistics: • The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.6% this quarter. • Over the twelve months to the March 2021 quarter, the CPI rose 1.1%. • The most significant price rise was Automotive fuel (+8.7%). • The most significant price fall was Furniture (-3.0%). tables At the All groups level, the CPI rose in all eight capital cities, ranging from 0.3% in Melbourne to 1.4% in Perth and 2.6% in Darwin. In all capital cities: • Automotive fuel rose, reflecting a further recovery in world oil consumption following large falls in early 2020 as a result of the COVID-19 related lockdowns.

RBNZ Harris: No need to remove stimulus, low rates only one factor behind soaring house prices -BBG (New Zealand)

RBNZ Policy Maker Peter Harris: No need right now to remove monetary stimulus, low rates only one factor behind soaring house prices -BBG $NZDUSD #RBNZ

Schnabel: We expect a rebound of the economy in H2 2021 but inflation to remain low (Euro Zone)

@Isabel_Schnabel: We expect a rebound of the economy in H2 2021 when containment measures are lifted & large parts of the population are vaccinated. But inflation is currently projected to remain low in the medium term, which justifies our highly accommodative stance.

Apr 29:

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement (United States)

The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum employment and price stability goals. The COVID-19 pandemic is causing tremendous human and economic hardship across the United States and around the world. Amid progress on vaccinations and strong policy support, indicators of economic activity and employment have strengthened.

Fed’s Powell: We are very worried about scarring in labor market (USA)

FED’S POWELL: WE ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT SCARRING IN LABOR MARKET.

Gross Domestic Product, 1st Quarter 2021 (Advance Estimate) (USD)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 6.4 percent in the first quarter of 2021 (table 1), according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2020, real GDP increased 4.3 percent.

Apr 30:

Personal Income and Outlays, March 2021 (USD)

Personal income increased $4.21 trillion (21.1 percent) in March according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (tables 3 and 5). Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $4.18 trillion (23.6 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $616.0 billion (4.2 percent). Real DPI increased 23.0 percent in March and Real PCE increased 3.6 percent; goods increased 7.3 percent and services increased 1.7 percent (tables 5 and 7). The PCE price index increased 0.5 percent.

Upcoming events

May 3:

ISM Manufacturing PMI

May 4:

  • Fed Chair Powell Speaks
  • RBA Rate Statement
  • Cash Rate

May 5:

  • Crude Oil Inventories
  • RBNZ Financial Stability Report
  • Employment Change q/q
  • Unemployment Rate
  • RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks
  • RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks
  • EU Economic Forecasts
  • ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
  • ISM Services PMI

May 6:

  • BOC Gov Macklem Speaks
  • Prelim ANZ Business Confidence
  • Asset Purchase Facility
  • BOE Monetary Policy Report
  • MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes
  • Monetary Policy Summary
  • MPC Official Bank Rate Votes
  • Official Bank Rate
  • Unemployment Claims

May 7:

  • RBA Monetary Policy Statement
  • Inflation Expectations q/q
  • ECB President Lagarde Speaks
  • MPC Member Broadbent Speaks
  • Employment Change
  • Unemployment Rate
  • Average Hourly Earnings m/m
  • Non-Farm Employment Change
  • Unemployment Rate
  • Ivey PMI
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