PA Market Report: Overview (Apr 12 – Apr 16) & Upcoming Events Apr’21

Apr 12

NZ’s cenbank to stand pat as it assesses travel resumption, property curbs (New Zealand)

New Zealand’s central bank is expected to leave interest rates and its quantitative easing program unchanged this week as it assesses the economic impact of some international tourists returning and the government’s new housing market measures. In a Reuters poll, all 11 economists forecast the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to stand pat on Wednesday and predicted it will keep the official cash rate (OCR) at the historic low of 0.25% for the rest of the year.

ECB holdings under PEPP rose by EU17.1B in week ended April 9 (European Zone)


Tailing 10Y Auction Sees Sufficient Demand To Avoid Puke (USA)

Shortly after today’s first bond auction, the $58BN in 3Y notes which saw brisk demand at 1130am ET this morning, moment ago the US Treasury held the second coupon sale for the day when it sold $38 billion in a closely watch 9-year 10-month reopening. This auction was less enticing to buyers, stopping at a yield of 1.680%, which was the highest since January 2020 and also tailed the When Issued 1.678% by 0.2bps.

Apr 13:

BoJ Kuroda: Will Take Time, But Can Achieve 2% Inflation Will Keep Easing Efforts Persistently (Japan)

BoJ’s Kuroda: Will Take Time, But Can Achieve 2% Inflation

BoJ Will Keep Up Easing Efforts Persistently

BoJ’s March Review Made Easing More Nimble, Sustainable

Industrial production

The index measures the monthly evolution of the volume of industrial production (excluding construction). With effect from January 2018, the indices are calculated with reference to the base year 2015 using the Ateco 2007 classification (Italian edition of Nace Rev. 2).

The US Will Ask For A Temporary Stop On The J&J Vaccine: NYT (USA)


Consumer Price Index – March 2021

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.6 percent in March on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.4 percent in February, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The March 1-month increase was the largest rise since a 0.6-percent increase in August 2012. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.6 percent before seasonal adjustment.

Andy Haldane to become Chief Executive of the Royal Society for Arts, Manufactures and Commerce (UK)

Andy has worked for the Bank for over thirty years, leading both its financial stability and monetary analysis areas during that time and serving as a member on both the Bank’s Financial Policy Committee (FPC) and Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). In addition to his contribution to the Bank, Andy has also led HM Government’s Industrial Strategy Council, as well as co-founding Pro Bono Economics, a charity dedicated to using economics to empower the social sector.

Treasury auction results (USA)

One day after we got a two-fer of a solid 3Y and a mediocre 10Y auction, some rates traders were afraid that between today’s (hot) CPI print and the flood of new issuance, today’s 30Y auction would be ugly. It was anything but. Moments ago the Treasury announced that it auctioned off the last coupon for the week when it sold $24 BN in ultra long dated paper in the form of a 29-year 10-month reopening.

Apr 14

Monetary Stimulus Continued (New Zealand)

The Monetary Policy Committee agreed to maintain the current stimulatory level of monetary settings in order to meet its consumer price inflation and employment objectives. The Committee will keep the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 0.25 percent, and the Large Scale Asset Purchase and Funding for Lending programmes unchanged. 

WTI Spikes Above $62 After 3rd Straight Weekly Crude Draw, Optimistic IEA Report (Global)

despite growing vaccine hesitancy and global COVID cases resurging, oil prices are rising for a third straight day after the IEA lifted its forecasts for demand and API’s report pointed to another decline in US crude stockpiles. Additionally, news that China is clamping down on independent oil refiners in an effort to curb overcapacity and stamp out illegal practices is helping push WTI back above $61 ahead of today’s official production and inventory data.

Apr 15:

Labour Force, Australia, March 2021 (Australia)

Key statistics: Seasonally adjusted estimates for March 2021: • Unemployment rate decreased to 5.6%. • Participation rate increased to 66.3%. • Employment increased to 13,077,600. • Employment to population ratio increased to 62.6%. • Underemployment rate decreased to 7.9%. • Monthly hours worked increased by 38 million hours. tables Unemployment: In seasonally adjusted terms, in March 2021: • The unemployment rate decreased 0.2 pts to 5.6% (0.4 pts higher than a year ago)

US retail sales explode in March as consumers use stimulus checks to spend heavily (USA)

A fresh batch of stimulus checks sent consumer purchases surging in March as the U.S. economy continued to get juice from aggressive congressional spending. Retail sales rose 9.8% for the month, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. That compared to the Dow Jones estimate of a 6.1% gain. A separate report showed that first-time filings for unemployment insurance plunged, with the Labor Department reporting 576,000 new jobless claims for the week ended April 10. 

Apr 16:

Treasury Releases Report on Macroeconomic and Foreign Exchange Policies of Major Trading Partners of the United States (USA)

The U.S. Department of the Treasury today delivered to Congress the semiannual Report on Macroeconomic and Foreign Exchange Policies of Major Trading Partners of the United States. In this Report, Treasury reviewed and assessed the policies of 20 major U.S. trading partners during the four quarters through December 2020.

Upcoming events:

Apr 21

  • CPI q/q
  • Retail Sales m/m
  • CPI y/y
  • BOE Gov Bailey Speaks
  • CPI m/m
  • BOC Monetary Policy Report
  • BOC Rate Statement
  • Overnight Rate
  • Crude Oil Inventories
  • BOC Press Conference

Apr 22

  • Monetary Policy Statement
  • Main Refinancing Rate
  • ECB Press Conference
  • Unemployment Claims

Apr 23

  • Retail Sales m/m
  • French Flash Services PMI
  • French Flash Manufacturing PMI
  • German Flash Manufacturing PMI
  • German Flash Services PMI
  • Flash Manufacturing PMI
  • Flash Services PMI
  • Flash Manufacturing PMI
  • Flash Services PMI
  • Flash Manufacturing PMI
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