PA Market Report: Overview (August 15 – August 19) & Upcoming Events August’22

August 15, 2022

Empire State Manufacturing Survey (NZD)

According to the August 2022 Empire State Manufacturing Survey, New York’s business activity fell substantially. General business conditions fell 42 points to 31.3. New orders, shipments, and unfulfilled orders fell. Delivery times stabilized…Read More…

China’s consumer and factory data (CNY)

The National Bureau of Statistics said Monday retail sales grew by 2.7% in July from a year ago, the National Bureau of Statistics said. That’s well below the 5% growth forecast by a Reuters poll, and down from growth of 3.1% in June. Within retail sales, catering, furniture, and construction-related categories saw declines… Read More… 

August 16, 2022

Consumer Price Index, July 2022 (CAD)

July’s CPI climbed 7.6% year-over-year, down from 8.1% in June. Slower fuel price increase caused the slowdown. Prices jumped 6.6% year over year in July without fuel, after a 6.5% rise in June. The CPI climbed 0.1% in July, the eighth straight month. The CPI rose 0.3% seasonally adjusted monthly. Since December 2021, both advances were the lowest… Read More

Monetary Policy Meeting (AUD)

Members began their discussion of world issues by noting that in many nations, inflation was 7–10%. Inflation was predicted to peak later and higher than before, while longer-term predictions fell. Rising costs weighed on actual family earnings. It spurred central banks to swiftly raise interest rates. These events hampered global growth. Many forecasts projected a minor recession in the U.S., so its growth was downgraded the most. China’s growth was also lower than predicted. Global economic growth is anticipated to be 3.4% in 2022 and 3.4% in 2023.

August 17, 2022

Wage Price Index (AUD)

In June quarter 2022 the seasonally adjusted WPI:

  1. rose 0.7% this quarter and 2.6% over the year.
  2. The private sector rose 0.7% and the public sector rose 0.6%.

Monetary Policy Statement (NZD)

The Official Cash Rate (OCR) rose to 3% from 2.5% today. The Committee decided to keep tightening monetary conditions to preserve price stability and boost employment. Inflation remains high, and labor is scarce.

Consumer Price Inflation (GBP)

  1. CPIH climbed 8.8% from June to July 2022, up from 8.2% in June.
  2. Dwelling and household services (mostly electricity, gas, other fuels, and owner-occupier’s housing prices), transport (primarily motor fuels), and food and non-alcoholic drinks drove the annual CPIH inflation rate in July 2022.
  3. CPIH climbed 0.6% monthly in July 2022 compared to July 2021.
  4. The CPI grew 10.1% from June to July 2022, up from 9.4%.
  5. CPI climbed 0.6% monthly in July 2022 compared to July 2021.
  6. Rising food costs drove up the CPIH and CPI yearly inflation rates between June and July 2022.

August 18, 2022

August 2022 Manufacturing Business Outlook (USD)

After two consecutive negative readings, the current activity diffusion index rose 19 points to 6.2 in August (see Chart). 47% of enterprises reported no change in current activity this month, while 26% reported growth (20 percent). Current new orders grew 20 points but remained negative at-5.1, while current shipments jumped 10 points to 24.8.

Overall, manufacturing employment grew, and the employment index rose 5 points to 24.1. Most enterprises (68%) reported unchanged employment, whereas 28% reported increased employment and 4% reported decreased. Average workweek index was 6.1. Read More.. 

China’s economy is in trouble(All)

As global GDP slows due to rising prices and the Ukraine crisis, many analysts hope China will save the day.

This isn’t 2008, when China’s rapidly growing economy and a big stimulus helped Western nations recover from the financial crisis. China’s economic troubles are severe. Premier Li Keqiang cautioned last month there is no enthusiasm for expansionary policies.

Labour Force, Australia (AUD)

Seasonally adjusted estimates for July 2022:

  1. the unemployment rate decreased to 3.4%.
  2. participation rate decreased to 66.4%.
  3. employment decreased to 13,558,400.
  4. employment to population ratio decreased to 64.2%.
  5. underemployment rate decreased to 6.0%.
  6. monthly hours worked fell 0.8% to 1,840 million.

FOMC Meeting Minutes (USD)

Following yesterday’s FOMC Minutes overnight, we’ve heard from FOMC members wanting the Funds Rate up to 3.75–4.0% this year and questioning why you’d want to drag rate rises into next year. 

The deputy manager discussed market trends first. Intermeeting financial market uncertainty was high. Most market players expected inflation to be moderate and economic.… Read More..

August 18, 2022

Fed Won’t be giving in (USD)

  1. USD stronger on EUR, GBP weakness, AUD/USD briefly below 0.6900
  2. Bonds and equities lacking clear direction amid mixed economic signals
  3. Fed speakers all see need for higher rates, but differ on how much more this year

Oil rebounds on a less negative EIA report. Read More..

Japan’s inflation hits a 7.5 year high (JPY)

Japan’s inflation rises slowly compared to its counterparts. Not soon, however. Japan’s inflation reached 2.6% y/y, the highest rate in eight years. It’s the fourth straight month their inflation rate has been over 2%. Excluding fresh food, consumer prices grew 2.4% y/y (up from 2.2%), the quickest rate since 2008, excluding the inflationary effects of the 2015 and 2017 tax rises. Q2 GDP grew by 0.5%, while Q1’s decline was corrected to 0%. Private consumption rose 1.1%, accounting for 60% of Japan’s production. Read More …

Upcoming Events

Aug 23, 2022

French Flash Services PMI (EUR)

German Flash Manufacturing PMI (EUR)

Flash Manufacturing PMI (GBP)

Aug 24, 2022

Durable Goods Orders m/m (USD)

Aug 25, 2022

Jackson Hole Symposium (ALL)

Prelim GDP q/q (USD)

Aug 26, 2022

Core PCE Price Index m/m (USD)

Fed Chair Powell Speaks (USD)

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