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PA Market Report: Overview (Sep 27 – Oct 01) & Upcoming Events October’21

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PA Market Report Overview (Sep 27 - Oct 01)

Sep 27, 2021

Evans: Going the Distance on Inflation (USA)

Thank you for the introduction. I’m very happy to be here in person after quite a long year and a half. Before I begin my comments, I should note that these views are my own and do not necessarily represent those of my colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) or others in the Federal Reserve System.

US: Durable Goods Orders rose 1.8% in August vs. 0.7% expected (USA)

According to the data published by the US Census Bureau revealed this Monday, Durable Goods Orders in the United States increased by 0.7% in August. This reading was well above market expectations pointing to a 0.5% growth and also marked a notable rebound from the previous month’s reading of -0.1%. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.2%, while Excluding defense, orders unexpectedly jumped 2.4% during the reported month, the publication further read.

Bailey: The hard yards (UK)

I am going to speak this evening about the state of the economy and about monetary policy as the recovery from Covid unfolds. The title of this speech, The Hard Yards, is I think a saying that originated in sailing, though I associate it more with forwarding play in rugby.

Sep 28, 2021

Lagarde: Monetary policy during an atypical recovery (EURO)

The economy is back from the brink, but not completely out of the woods. After a highly unusual recession, the euro area is going through a highly atypical recovery. This atypical recovery is leading to rapid growth, but also to supply bottlenecks appearing unusually early in the economic cycle. It is also causing inflation to rebound quickly as the economy reopens. And it is helping to accelerate pre-existing trends and new structural changes brought about by the pandemic

Bullard Sees Two Rate Increases In 2022, Calls For Balance Sheet To Begin Declining As Soon As Bond Purchases End (USA)

Bullard: Fed Showing Commitment To Higher Inflation Framework But Now Risks Overachieving With Inflation Too High For Too Long

Congress must raise the debt limit by Oct. 18, Treasury Secretary Yellen warns in new letter as potential default looms (USA)

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Tuesday told House Speaker Nancy Pelosi that Congress has just under three weeks to address the looming debt ceiling and avoid near-certain economic calamity. “We now estimate that Treasury is likely to exhaust its extraordinary measures if Congress has not acted to raise or suspend the debt limit by October 18

US Consumer Confidence Fell Further in September (USA)

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® declined again in September, following decreases in both July and August. The Index now stands at 109.3 (1985=100), down from 115.2 in August. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—fell to 143.4 from 148.9 last month. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—fell to 86.6 from 92.8.

ECB won’t automatically boost APP when crisis aid ends: Kazimir (EURO)

ECB’S KAZIMIR: SUPPLY SQUEEZE IS A MAIN RISK TO THE INFLATION OUTLOOK.

Powell: We are in my view a long way from max employment (USA)

POWELL: WE HAVE ALL BUT MET TEST FOR TAPER :

Sep 30, 2021

China orders top energy firms to secure supplies at all costs (CHINA)

*CHINA ORDERS TOP ENERGY FIRMS TO SECURE SUPPLIES AT ALL COSTS

Upcoming Events

Oct 1, 2021

US Manufacturing PMI at 61.1%; September 2021 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business (USA)

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector grew in September, with the overall economy notching a 16th consecutive month of growth, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®. The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee

Oct 4, 2021